Pending home sales across the United States rose 3.8% in May compared to April, marking a late spring surge in buyer activity despite mortgage rates remaining stubbornly above 6%, according to a report released June 17, 2026 by the National Association of REALTORS®. The monthly report, which tracks home sales under contract before they close, also showed a 4.8% year-over-year increase, suggesting that pent-up housing demand is finally breaking through as Americans adjust to a new reality of higher borrowing costs.

The gains appeared across all four major US regions, though with stark differences in momentum. The Northeast led the way with an 8.7% month-over-month jump and a 6.1% annual increase, a notable shift for a region that had struggled with inventory constraints and slower sales for months. The Midwest posted the strongest year-over-year growth at 9.3%, with an 8.1% monthly gain. The South and West, by contrast, saw more modest increases—1.0% and 0.7% month-over-month respectively, with annual gains of 3.3% and 1.2%. At the local level, Kansas City topped the charts with a 20.1% year-over-year surge, followed by San Antonio at 15.7% and Minneapolis-St. Paul at 13.9%. Miami, Louisville, Cincinnati, Nashville, Milwaukee, Virginia Beach, and Richmond rounded out the top ten metro areas for annual pending sales growth.

"A late spring buyer rush—even with mortgage rates not budging—is an indication of pent-up housing demand and consumers' acceptance of above-6% mortgage rates as the new normal," said NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun. The report emphasized that the inventory-constrained Northeast, which had seen faster home price growth but slower sales activity for several months, is now showing more buyer contract signings. According to Yun, more supply is needed to help moderate home price growth across that region.

The uptick signals that buyers who'd been sitting on the sidelines are finally jumping in, deciding that waiting for rates to fall back to pandemic-era lows isn't a realistic strategy. Yun projected that "falling oil prices will help lower mortgage rates" going forward, though he cautioned that declines will be modest given two major factors: sizable federal government borrowing and strong AI investment spending by tech companies. The pending home sales index serves as a leading indicator because contracts typically close within one or two months of signing, meaning May's surge should translate into completed sales through June and July. The index tracks about 40% of multiple listing service data nationwide.

The report's forward outlook remains cautiously optimistic but tempered by structural pressures. While lower oil prices may provide some relief on mortgage rates, the combination of federal borrowing and tech sector AI spending will keep rate declines "modest," according to Yun. For buyers, that means the current environment—where 6%-plus rates are normal and inventory remains tight in many markets—is likely here to stay. The Northeast's rebound and the Midwest's strong performance suggest that regions with more affordable price points relative to the coasts may continue to see the strongest activity as buyers adapt to the new normal.