Home sales are set to improve in the second half of 2026 if inventory continues to expand, while the typical homeowner will gain approximately $16,000 in housing wealth this year, according to National Association of REALTORS® Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun. Yun made the projections during the Residential Economic Issues and Trends Forum at the 2026 REALTORS® Legislative Meetings on June 16, 2026. Despite ongoing challenges in the housing market, the forecast suggests modest growth ahead for both sales activity and homeowner wealth accumulation.

NAR's current forecast calls for existing-home sales to rise 4% this year, with the median home price also climbing 4%. Mortgage rates are projected to average 6.5% in 2026. The national median home price currently sits at $430,000. Looking further ahead, Yun ran multiple scenarios to estimate when the national median would reach $1 million—each scenario pointed to roughly 25 years. To illustrate long-term appreciation power, the report noted that the national median home price was just $90,000 in 1990, while San Francisco, considered super expensive at the time, had a median price of only $250,000. On the economy front, the unemployment rate is expected to remain under 5%, and job gains are projected to reach 400,000 this year.

"Homeowners will continue to build wealth, while renters are simply spinning their wheels," Yun said during his presentation. The U.S. economy will avoid a recession in 2026, Yun said, pointing to strong business investment in artificial intelligence and data centers. Dr. Jessica Lautz, NAR deputy chief economist and vice president of research, also spoke at the forum and addressed persistent misinformation holding back potential buyers. "The typical down payment for first-time homebuyers was just 10% last year," Lautz said, noting that many potential buyers still incorrectly believe they need a 20% down payment. Lautz also highlighted that 17% of younger baby boomers who sold this year had never sold a property before, urging realtors to recognize first-time sellers as an overlooked client segment.

The report's analysis reveals a market in transition, where housing wealth continues to accumulate for owners while affordability challenges persist for those trying to enter. Yun's recession-avoidance prediction rests on strong business investment, particularly in AI and data centers, which should support continued job growth and keep unemployment below 5%. The improving sales outlook hinges on one critical condition: expanding inventory and housing supply must continue. Lautz described the current market as "wonky," where one home can sit for months while a neighboring property receives multiple offers. This unevenness reflects distinct buyer segments actively purchasing despite challenges—some driven by necessity, others by determination or housing equity.

The 25-year timeline to a $1 million median home price underscores the long-term wealth-building potential of homeownership, especially compared to renting. The gap between homeowners building equity and renters "spinning their wheels" is expected to widen as home values appreciate 4% annually in the near term. With mortgage rates projected to stabilize around 6.5% and sales volume ticking up modestly, the second half of 2026 could mark a turning point for a market that's felt gridlocked. The key variable remains supply—if inventory keeps expanding, buyers will have more options and sales momentum should build through year-end.