Southern California homebuyers saw their monthly mortgage payments jump 96% during Jerome Powell's eight years as Federal Reserve chair, according to a new analysis published May 28, 2026 by the Daily News. The estimated monthly house payment for the region's median-priced home hit $3,931 in March 2026, up from roughly $2,000 when Powell took the helm in 2018. Meanwhile, Southern California's average weekly wages rose just 39% during the same period, creating what the report describes as a "whipsawed" housing market that experienced wildly different conditions across Powell's tenure.

The data reveals a stark split between Powell's first four years and his final four years as Fed chair. Mortgage rates averaged 3.6% from 2018 to 2022, then jumped to an average of 6.5% from 2022 to 2026, according to the analysis of Freddie Mac's 30-year loan benchmark. The gap between the lowest rate month (2.7% in December 2020) and the highest rate month (7.6% in October 2023) reached nearly 5 percentage points. Southern Californians bought 694,571 homes during the past four high-rate years, a sharp 28% drop from the buying pace of the previous four low-rate years, based on data from real estate tracker Attom. Home price appreciation slowed dramatically as well: the median selling price of $810,000 in March 2026 represented just an 8% gain over the past four years, compared with a 47% surge during the previous four low-rate years. Housing inventory also tightened, with the number of homes for sale running 10% lower over the past four years than in 2018-22, according to Realtor.com data cited in the report.

The report characterizes Powell's reign as "akin to a roller coaster ride for Southern California's housing market" that created "a tale of two worlds for real estate." Columnist Jonathan Lansner writes that Powell's tenure "began with low mortgage rates that helped boost home prices and sales. Then the pandemic changed everything." The analysis notes that pricier financing "stunted home sales and appreciation" during the second half of Powell's chairmanship, even as those higher rates "didn't create the pricing discounts house hunters wanted." The pattern wasn't unique to Southern California—statewide, sales fell 27% over the last four years compared with 2018-22, while home-price appreciation slowed to only 5% from 47%, and the report shows house payments rose 91% over eight years.

The dramatic shift in mortgage rates created a severe affordability crisis that persisted even as home price growth cooled. The report explains that the Fed initially deployed "historically cheaper loans needed to backstop a coronavirus-twisted economy," then pivoted to "a high-rate era used to cool an overheated business climate." This policy reversal pushed mortgage rates up while keeping inventory tight, preventing the price corrections buyers hoped for. The analysis breaks down impacts by county: San Diego and Ventura each saw 32% sales drops with 10% and 9% price gains respectively over the last four years, while Riverside and San Bernardino experienced 31% sales declines with just 4% and 6% price appreciation. Orange County's 29% sales drop came alongside a stronger 21% price gain, while Los Angeles County saw the smallest sales decline at 23% with 7% price growth. According to the report, "to a Southern California house hunter, perhaps Powell's legacy is this: A buyer's house payment jumped 96% over his eight years" while wages couldn't keep pace, fundamentally reshaping who can afford to buy a home in the region.